Hungary goes to the polls on Sunday in what independent polls say is the most serious challenge to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán since he took power in 2010. All 199 seats in the National Assembly are being contested.

Why it matters

Orbán has governed Hungary for 16 years and reshaped its institutions in his image. A defeat would not only end his rule — it would alter the balance of power within the European Union and NATO, where Orbán has consistently blocked consensus on Ukraine and maintained ties with Moscow.

The challenger

Péter Magyar was a Fidesz insider until February 2024, when he publicly broke with the party after a presidential pardon scandal. He formed the centre-right Tisza (Respect and Freedom) party and has channelled voter anger over economic stagnation, corruption and rising costs of living.

Independent polls put Tisza at roughly 48 per cent against Fidesz at about 38 per cent. Pro-government pollsters show a tighter race.

The Orbán advantage

A polling lead does not guarantee victory. Since 2010, Orbán has redrawn electoral boundaries, changed the rules for entering parliament and consolidated control over state media. Gerrymandering has ensured Fidesz strongholds are overrepresented. In 2022, Fidesz won a two-thirds supermajority with 54 per cent of the vote.

Analysts caution that Tisza may need to win the popular vote by a substantial margin to overcome the structural advantages Fidesz has built into the system.

International stakes

The election is being watched closely in Brussels and Washington. Orbán has vetoed EU aid packages for Ukraine, maintained economic ties with Russia and cultivated a relationship with President Trump. A Magyar victory could realign Hungary with the European mainstream.

Trump and Vice President Vance endorsed Orbán publicly this week. Independent polling suggests the endorsement may have hurt Orbán with Hungarian voters.

What happens next

Polls close at 19:00 local time on Sunday. If Tisza wins a majority, Magyar would become prime minister. If results are close, coalition negotiations could follow. International election observers from OSCE are monitoring the vote.