Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban faces the toughest electoral challenge of his 16-year rule when voters go to the polls on Sunday. Opinion polls show the centre-right Tisza party, led by former Orban ally Peter Magyar, holding a narrow lead.

Why it matters: Hungary’s election tests whether populist leaders who have consolidated power can survive economic decline. The result will shift the balance of power inside the European Union.

The challenger

Magyar, a former Fidesz insider, broke with Orban in 2024 and built Tisza into a credible opposition force within months. His campaign has focused on economic stagnation, the rising cost of living and what he calls a system of oligarchic enrichment around the ruling party.

Polls conducted in early April show Tisza with a lead of between two and five percentage points, though Hungary’s electoral system, which Orban’s party redesigned, favours the incumbent in seat allocation.

The case for Orban

Orban’s Fidesz party argues it has kept Hungary out of the Ukraine war, maintained low taxes and defended traditional values. Orban has positioned himself as a bridge between the West and Russia, a stance that appeals to voters wary of European military commitments.

His supporters point to Hungary’s low unemployment rate and recent infrastructure spending as evidence that governance has been effective despite international criticism.

The case against

Critics say Orban has hollowed out democratic institutions, captured the judiciary and media, and allowed allies to amass wealth through state contracts. The European Commission has withheld billions in recovery funds over rule-of-law concerns.

Inflation peaked above 25% in 2023 and the forint has weakened steadily. For Hungary’s poorest voters, Bloomberg reported, the cost-of-living crisis has made Orban’s populist promises ring hollow.

American involvement

US Vice President JD Vance flew to Budapest this week and publicly urged Hungarian voters to re-elect Orban. “Stand with Viktor Orban, because he stands for you,” Vance told a crowd at a Hungarian-American friendship event. The intervention drew criticism from European leaders and the Ukrainian government.

What happens next

Polls close on Sunday evening. Even if Magyar wins the popular vote, the electoral system’s geographic weighting could hand Orban enough constituencies to form a government. A result within two points either way may take days to finalise.