What happened
The International Monetary Fund released the main chapter of its April 2026 World Economic Outlook on Tuesday at 09:00 ET in Washington.
The report delivers updated growth, inflation and trade forecasts as the global economy contends with the US-Iran war and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: The IMF’s forecasts shape government budgets, central bank decisions and investor expectations worldwide. Updated numbers reflecting the war’s impact will influence policy choices from Washington to Pretoria.
What the January numbers showed
The IMF’s January 2026 update projected global growth of 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Advanced economies were expected to grow at 1.8%, with the US at 2.4% on the back of fiscal policy support and lower interest rates. The euro area was projected at 1.3%, while India led emerging markets at 6.3%.
The January report cited technology investment, accommodative financial conditions and private sector adaptability as factors offsetting trade policy disruptions.
What has changed
The US-Iran war, which began on 28 February, has introduced a shock not captured in January’s models. Brent crude has risen more than 31% since hostilities began. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which took effect on Monday, threatens to push energy costs higher still.
Global inflation, which had been trending down, faces renewed upward pressure from energy prices. US inflation hit 3.3% in March 2026, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
What to watch
The full report, including detailed regional and sector analysis, will be published in stages throughout the spring meetings. Markets and governments will be watching for any downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation, particularly for energy-importing economies.