The polling numbers

A CNN poll conducted by SSRS in late March found that 31% of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of the economy — a career low. Two-thirds of respondents said Trump’s policies have made economic conditions worse, up 10 percentage points since January. According to CNN, that 65% figure is the highest share of Americans who have said a president’s policies worsened the economy at any point in the poll’s history, exceeding the peak negative rating recorded for former President Joe Biden.

Just 27% of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of inflation, down from 44% one year ago.

Why it matters

Economic approval ratings are among the strongest predictors of midterm election outcomes. Democrats are now favoured over Republicans, 40% to 35%, to handle the economy, according to the same CNN poll. Midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026, and all 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are on the ballot. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers.

The jobs picture

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on 3 April that the US economy added 178,000 jobs in March — well above the 60,000 economists had forecast and a significant recovery from the 92,000 jobs lost in February. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3%.

However, the Center for American Progress noted that the broader 12-month trend shows the labour market added only 260,000 jobs in total — an average of fewer than 22,000 per month in an economy with more than 158 million workers. Long-term unemployment is rising, with displaced workers struggling to move into growing sectors.

Manufacturing and tariffs

Manufacturing employment, which the administration’s tariff policy was designed to boost, gained 15,000 jobs in March but remains 71,000 below its level at the time of the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in April 2025. Economists cited by PBS NewsHour estimate that broad tariffs have added roughly 0.5 percentage points to core inflation, keeping consumer prices above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Petrol prices and mortgages

The average price of a gallon of petrol in the United States broke $4 for the first time in four years, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israeli war against Iran. Mortgage rates rose for the fifth consecutive week, adding further pressure on household finances.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has maintained that the administration is steering the economy toward long-term strength and that short-term disruptions reflect a necessary transition away from reliance on foreign goods and energy.